{
 "destination": "istanbul-turkey",
 "name": "Istanbul",
 "country": "TR",
 "computed_at": "2026-09-11T07:49:47",
 "model_version": "v11-2026.07",
 "artifact_hash": "bebc5f05fc0a827a",
 "overall_state": "PARTIALLY_STALE",
 "confidence": 0.741,
 "signal_profile": {
  "cruise": 0.45780793600852393,
  "season": 0.47741742230635403,
  "holiday": 0.064774641685122
 },
 "ship_size_coverage": 0.9766,
 "capacity_note": "Ship figures are guest capacity at double occupancy (berths, not headcounts); unknown-size ships aren't counted, so true capacity can only be higher.",
 "definitions": {
  "bands": "Crowd bands are percentiles of this destination's OWN forecast year (Calm 0\u201339, Lively 40\u201364, Busy 65\u201384, Packed 85\u2013100 on busier_than_pct) \u2014 never a comparison to any other place.",
  "busier_than_pct": "How the day ranks against the same destination's other forecast days, 0\u2013100; 100 appears only on the single busiest day (rank n = 1).",
  "basis": "basis \"confirmed\" = the schedule inputs (ships, holidays, season) are confirmed sources; the crowd level itself is always modeled. \"estimated\" = at least one input is a labeled stand-in.",
  "confidence": "Share of the day's signal weight carried by real sources, scaled by their coverage (0\u20131; not a probability). It steps to a lower tier where a feeder country's school-holiday calendar for that year isn't published yet \u2014 coverage drops, nothing is guessed.",
  "quiet_desirability": "Weekly 0\u20131 scales: quiet = 1 \u2212 mean busier_than_pct/100 (1 = quietest); desirability = editorial blend of comfort temperature, dryness and daylight (weights in /constants.json).",
  "caveats_checked": "true = the caveat rules ran for this day; an empty caveats list is a statement, not an unpopulated field.",
  "legend_url": "https://avoid-crowds.com/methodology/"
 },
 "methodology": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/methodology/",
 "months": [
  {
   "month": "2026-09",
   "label": "September 2026",
   "days_total": 20,
   "days_scored": 20,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 20,
   "call_days": 11,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2026-09-25",
   "peak_ships": 3,
   "peak_capacity_min": 6539,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 0,
    "Busy": 11,
    "Packed": 9
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2026-09-16",
    "band": "Busy",
    "busier_than_pct": 65
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2026-09-25",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 99
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 25.6,
   "typical_rain_days": 5.4,
   "typical_daylight_h": 12.26,
   "summary": "September 2026 \u2014 20 of 20 days Busy or Packed (partial: 11\u201330 September) \u00b7 ships 11 of 20 days \u00b7 peak Fri 25 Sep",
   "capsule": "September 2026 in Istanbul: 20 of 20 days forecast Busy or Packed. Only 11\u201330 September is in our current window \u2014 20 of September's 30 days. Cruise ships call on 11 of 20 days (peak Fri 25 Sep: 3 ships, guest capacity at least 6,539). Typical September here: warm and showery \u2014 around 26\u00b0C by day, rain on about 5 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-09",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-09"
  },
  {
   "month": "2026-10",
   "label": "October 2026",
   "days_total": 31,
   "days_scored": 31,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 13,
   "call_days": 16,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2026-10-08",
   "peak_ships": 2,
   "peak_capacity_min": 5444,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 18,
    "Busy": 6,
    "Packed": 7
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2026-10-02",
    "band": "Lively",
    "busier_than_pct": 57
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2026-10-08",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 99
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 21.0,
   "typical_rain_days": 6.6,
   "typical_daylight_h": 10.87,
   "summary": "October 2026 \u2014 13 of 31 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 16 of 31 days \u00b7 peak Thu 8 Oct",
   "capsule": "October 2026 in Istanbul: 13 of 31 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 16 of 31 days (peak Thu 8 Oct: 2 ships, guest capacity at least 5,444). Typical October here: mild and showery \u2014 around 21\u00b0C by day, rain on about 7 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-10",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-10"
  },
  {
   "month": "2026-11",
   "label": "November 2026",
   "days_total": 30,
   "days_scored": 30,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 3,
   "call_days": 10,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2026-11-04",
   "peak_ships": 3,
   "peak_capacity_min": 7256,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 19,
    "Lively": 8,
    "Busy": 1,
    "Packed": 2
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "band": "Calm",
    "busier_than_pct": 30
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 99
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 17.0,
   "typical_rain_days": 9.4,
   "typical_daylight_h": 9.66,
   "summary": "November 2026 \u2014 3 of 30 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 10 of 30 days \u00b7 peak Wed 4 Nov",
   "capsule": "November 2026 in Istanbul: 3 of 30 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 10 of 30 days (peak Wed 4 Nov: 3 ships, guest capacity at least 7,256). Typical November here: mild and wet \u2014 around 17\u00b0C by day, rain on about 9 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-11",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-11"
  },
  {
   "month": "2026-12",
   "label": "December 2026",
   "days_total": 31,
   "days_scored": 31,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 0,
   "call_days": 7,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2026-12-02",
   "peak_ships": 1,
   "peak_capacity_min": 2550,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 26,
    "Lively": 5,
    "Busy": 0,
    "Packed": 0
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2026-12-01",
    "band": "Calm",
    "busier_than_pct": 22
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2026-12-23",
    "band": "Lively",
    "busier_than_pct": 50
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 12.7,
   "typical_rain_days": 11.6,
   "typical_daylight_h": 9.06,
   "summary": "December 2026 \u2014 0 of 31 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 7 of 31 days \u00b7 peak Wed 2 Dec",
   "capsule": "December 2026 in Istanbul: 0 of 31 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 7 of 31 days (peak Wed 2 Dec: 1 ship, guest capacity at least 2,550). Typical December here: cool and wet \u2014 around 13\u00b0C by day, rain on about 12 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-12",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2026-12"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-01",
   "label": "January 2027",
   "days_total": 31,
   "days_scored": 31,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 0,
   "call_days": 7,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-01-06",
   "peak_ships": 1,
   "peak_capacity_min": 2550,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 27,
    "Lively": 4,
    "Busy": 0,
    "Packed": 0
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-01-15",
    "band": "Calm",
    "busier_than_pct": 10
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-01-06",
    "band": "Lively",
    "busier_than_pct": 49
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 9.7,
   "typical_rain_days": 11.6,
   "typical_daylight_h": 9.36,
   "summary": "January 2027 \u2014 0 of 31 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 7 of 31 days \u00b7 peak Wed 6 Jan",
   "capsule": "January 2027 in Istanbul: 0 of 31 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 7 of 31 days (peak Wed 6 Jan: 1 ship, guest capacity at least 2,550). Typical January here: the coolest, wettest stretch of the year \u2014 around 10\u00b0C by day, rain on about 12 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-01",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-01"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-02",
   "label": "February 2027",
   "days_total": 28,
   "days_scored": 28,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 0,
   "call_days": 4,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-02-03",
   "peak_ships": 1,
   "peak_capacity_min": 1984,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 24,
    "Lively": 4,
    "Busy": 0,
    "Packed": 0
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-02-07",
    "band": "Calm",
    "busier_than_pct": 2
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-02-03",
    "band": "Lively",
    "busier_than_pct": 42
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 10.1,
   "typical_rain_days": 11.2,
   "typical_daylight_h": 10.42,
   "summary": "February 2027 \u2014 0 of 28 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 4 of 28 days \u00b7 peak Wed 3 Feb",
   "capsule": "February 2027 in Istanbul: 0 of 28 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 4 of 28 days (peak Wed 3 Feb: 1 ship, guest capacity at least 1,984). Typical February here: cool and wet \u2014 around 10\u00b0C by day, rain on about 11 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-02",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-02"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-03",
   "label": "March 2027",
   "days_total": 31,
   "days_scored": 31,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 1,
   "call_days": 7,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-03-24",
   "peak_ships": 2,
   "peak_capacity_min": 3548,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 24,
    "Lively": 6,
    "Busy": 1,
    "Packed": 0
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-03-13",
    "band": "Calm",
    "busier_than_pct": 13
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-03-10",
    "band": "Busy",
    "busier_than_pct": 74
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 11.4,
   "typical_rain_days": 11.0,
   "typical_daylight_h": 11.67,
   "summary": "March 2027 \u2014 1 of 31 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 7 of 31 days \u00b7 peak Wed 24 Mar",
   "capsule": "March 2027 in Istanbul: 1 of 31 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 7 of 31 days (peak Wed 24 Mar: 2 ships, guest capacity at least 3,548). Typical March here: cool and wet \u2014 around 11\u00b0C by day, rain on about 11 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-03",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-03"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-04",
   "label": "April 2027",
   "days_total": 30,
   "days_scored": 30,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 6,
   "call_days": 9,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-04-18",
   "peak_ships": 2,
   "peak_capacity_min": 5546,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 24,
    "Busy": 5,
    "Packed": 1
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-04-10",
    "band": "Lively",
    "busier_than_pct": 52
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-04-18",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 99
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 15.8,
   "typical_rain_days": 10.8,
   "typical_daylight_h": 13.1,
   "summary": "April 2027 \u2014 6 of 30 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 9 of 30 days \u00b7 peak Sun 18 Apr",
   "capsule": "April 2027 in Istanbul: 6 of 30 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 9 of 30 days (peak Sun 18 Apr: 2 ships, guest capacity at least 5,546). Typical April here: mild and wet \u2014 around 16\u00b0C by day, rain on about 11 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-04",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-04"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-05",
   "label": "May 2027",
   "days_total": 31,
   "days_scored": 31,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 12,
   "call_days": 14,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-05-17",
   "peak_ships": 3,
   "peak_capacity_min": 5932,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 19,
    "Busy": 8,
    "Packed": 4
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-05-04",
    "band": "Lively",
    "busier_than_pct": 44
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-05-17",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 98
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 21.5,
   "typical_rain_days": 8.0,
   "typical_daylight_h": 14.29,
   "summary": "May 2027 \u2014 12 of 31 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 14 of 31 days \u00b7 peak Mon 17 May",
   "capsule": "May 2027 in Istanbul: 12 of 31 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 14 of 31 days (peak Mon 17 May: 3 ships, guest capacity at least 5,932). Typical May here: mild and showery \u2014 around 22\u00b0C by day, rain on about 8 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-05",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-05"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-06",
   "label": "June 2027",
   "days_total": 30,
   "days_scored": 30,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 21,
   "call_days": 13,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-06-20",
   "peak_ships": 2,
   "peak_capacity_min": 6286,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 9,
    "Busy": 3,
    "Packed": 18
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-06-01",
    "band": "Lively",
    "busier_than_pct": 56
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-06-02",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 99
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 25.6,
   "typical_rain_days": 10.4,
   "typical_daylight_h": 14.93,
   "summary": "June 2027 \u2014 21 of 30 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 13 of 30 days \u00b7 peak Sun 20 Jun",
   "capsule": "June 2027 in Istanbul: 21 of 30 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 13 of 30 days (peak Sun 20 Jun: 2 ships, guest capacity at least 6,286). Typical June here: warm and wet \u2014 around 26\u00b0C by day, rain on about 10 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-06",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-06"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-07",
   "label": "July 2027",
   "days_total": 31,
   "days_scored": 31,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 31,
   "call_days": 15,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-07-11",
   "peak_ships": 2,
   "peak_capacity_min": 5106,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 0,
    "Busy": 20,
    "Packed": 11
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-07-01",
    "band": "Busy",
    "busier_than_pct": 69
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-07-11",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 99
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 28.8,
   "typical_rain_days": 3.8,
   "typical_daylight_h": 14.67,
   "summary": "July 2027 \u2014 31 of 31 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 15 of 31 days \u00b7 peak Sun 11 Jul",
   "capsule": "July 2027 in Istanbul: 31 of 31 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 15 of 31 days (peak Sun 11 Jul: 2 ships, guest capacity at least 5,106). Typical July here: hot and dry \u2014 around 29\u00b0C by day, rain on about 4 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-07",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-07"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-08",
   "label": "August 2027",
   "days_total": 31,
   "days_scored": 31,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 31,
   "call_days": 13,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-08-22",
   "peak_ships": 2,
   "peak_capacity_min": 6286,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 0,
    "Busy": 19,
    "Packed": 12
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-08-19",
    "band": "Busy",
    "busier_than_pct": 76
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-08-22",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 100
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 29.5,
   "typical_rain_days": 3.8,
   "typical_daylight_h": 13.64,
   "summary": "August 2027 \u2014 31 of 31 days Busy or Packed \u00b7 ships 13 of 31 days \u00b7 peak Sun 22 Aug",
   "capsule": "August 2027 in Istanbul: 31 of 31 days forecast Busy or Packed. Cruise ships call on 13 of 31 days (peak Sun 22 Aug: 2 ships, guest capacity at least 6,286). Typical August here: hot and dry \u2014 around 30\u00b0C by day, rain on about 4 days. Avoid-Crowds, as of 11 Sep 2026, recomputed nightly: https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-08",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-08"
  },
  {
   "month": "2027-09",
   "label": "September 2027",
   "days_total": 10,
   "days_scored": 10,
   "days_gap": 0,
   "busy_or_packed": 10,
   "call_days": 3,
   "cruise_gap_days": 0,
   "peak_date": "2027-09-09",
   "peak_ships": 1,
   "peak_capacity_min": 3274,
   "band_counts": {
    "Calm": 0,
    "Lively": 0,
    "Busy": 7,
    "Packed": 3
   },
   "calmest": {
    "date": "2027-09-01",
    "band": "Busy",
    "busier_than_pct": 68
   },
   "busiest": {
    "date": "2027-09-09",
    "band": "Packed",
    "busier_than_pct": 91
   },
   "typical_temp_max_c": 25.6,
   "typical_rain_days": 5.4,
   "typical_daylight_h": 12.26,
   "summary": "September 2027 \u2014 already covered by September 2026",
   "capsule": "",
   "anchor": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/#m-2027-09"
  }
 ],
 "climate_normals_source": "meteorological archive:41.01,28.98:2019-2023",
 "climate_note": "Monthly typical_temp_max_c / typical_rain_days are climate normals from a meteorological archive (2019\u20132023 daily means) \u2014 climate, never a forecast.",
 "best_time": [
  {
   "start": "2027-05-10",
   "end": "2027-05-16",
   "label": "recommended",
   "headline": "Recommended \u2014 quiet and pleasant",
   "reason": "busier than most weeks here; the weather is usually at its best",
   "quiet": 0.433,
   "desirability": 0.817
  },
  {
   "start": "2027-05-24",
   "end": "2027-05-30",
   "label": "recommended",
   "headline": "Recommended \u2014 quiet and pleasant",
   "reason": "busier than most weeks here; the weather is usually at its best",
   "quiet": 0.371,
   "desirability": 0.817
  },
  {
   "start": "2026-11-23",
   "end": "2026-11-29",
   "label": "recommended",
   "headline": "Recommended \u2014 quiet and pleasant",
   "reason": "quieter than most weeks here; the weather is usually decent",
   "quiet": 0.653,
   "desirability": 0.546
  },
  {
   "start": "2027-05-03",
   "end": "2027-05-09",
   "label": "recommended",
   "headline": "Recommended \u2014 quiet and pleasant",
   "reason": "busier than most weeks here; the weather is usually at its best",
   "quiet": 0.356,
   "desirability": 0.817
  },
  {
   "start": "2027-05-17",
   "end": "2027-05-23",
   "label": "recommended",
   "headline": "Recommended \u2014 quiet and pleasant",
   "reason": "busier than most weeks here; the weather is usually at its best",
   "quiet": 0.347,
   "desirability": 0.817
  },
  {
   "start": "2026-11-16",
   "end": "2026-11-22",
   "label": "recommended",
   "headline": "Recommended \u2014 quiet and pleasant",
   "reason": "quieter than most weeks here; the weather is usually decent",
   "quiet": 0.631,
   "desirability": 0.546
  }
 ],
 "quietest_not_recommended": [
  {
   "start": "2027-02-22",
   "end": "2027-02-28",
   "label": "quiet_but_harsh",
   "headline": "Quiet but not a great time to be here",
   "reason": "among the quietest weeks of the year here; the weather is usually harsh",
   "quiet": 0.919,
   "desirability": 0.19
  },
  {
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   "caveats_checked": true,
   "record": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/2027-09-09.json"
  },
  {
   "date": "2027-09-10",
   "band": "Busy",
   "busier_than_pct": 68,
   "basis": "confirmed",
   "confidence": 0.743,
   "guest_capacity_min": 0,
   "ships": 0,
   "unknown_size": 0,
   "drivers": [
    "Germany school holidays"
   ],
   "events": [],
   "caveats": [],
   "caveats_checked": true,
   "record": "https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/2027-09-10.json"
  }
 ],
 "cite_as": "Avoid-Crowds crowd forecast \u2014 Istanbul, as of 2026-09-11 \u00b7 https://avoid-crowds.com/istanbul-turkey/",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0"
}